Posts tagged Mitt Romney
2012 Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul polls better against President Barack Obama in a head-to-head matchup than establishment-choice moderate Mitt Romney, according to a recent survey conducted by Public Policy Polling.
The poll found that Obama defeats Romney by 4 percentage points (48-44) and Newt Gingrich by 8 percent (50-42). While Santorum also joins Paul being within striking distance of the President by 3 points (48-45 and 46-43 respectively), Paul brings Obama a noticeable 2 percentage points further away from the 50 percent a candidate seeks to win on election day. Considering the +/- 3.3-percentage point margin of error, Paul in this poll is statistically tied for the presidency.
Reinforcing the electability case for Paul is that he ties Obama among independent voters, while Romney loses the largest voting segment by 6 percent, Santorum by 8 percent, and Gingrich by 15 percent – a cause for concern whether Paul’s three rivals would even be competitive come November.
While many polls have shown Paul to be the most competitive Romney alternative, it also shows Paul to be making substantial progress and momentum for a general election bid. The new poll reveals that Paul is narrowing the gap between himself and Obama by 5 percentage points since last month’s PPP poll.
Other notables are that among one of the fastest growing voter segments, the Hispanic vote, Paul takes a full third of the Hispanic vote against the sitting President, with no other candidate able to come within 5 points of Paul’s Hispanic support.
Among the largest voter segment, self-identified independents, Paul is viewed favorably by 41 percent, whereas Romney and Santorum are relegated to a melancholy 29 percent and Gingrich further behind with a mere 24 percent favorability. These favorability numbers among independents translate into a clear Election Day advantage unique to Paul, where he would tie President Obama 42 to 42 for their votes.
Young voters, those 18 to 29 years in this poll, have long been considered to be in the President’s court. Yet, in a Paul-Obama matchup, these voters leave Obama and comparatively flock to Paul, backing him with a hefty 40 percent of their support. The range of youth support for Paul’s three competitors in a head-to-head with Obama ranges 22 to 29 percent, meaning about half of Paul’s margin to weak at best.
“The media may find an inevitability about Romney becoming nominee, but it is clear that with anyone other than Ron Paul as nominee a second term for Obama is the inevitability,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton.
“When polls say ‘Romney is actually not the most electable Republican candidate,’ voters should flock to the candidate who can defeat Obama by winning on true conservative principle. That man is Ron Paul,” added Mr. Benton.
The PPP poll is based on telephone surveys of 900 voters and has a +/- 3.3-percentage point error margin.
Every media outlet seems to have a different delegate count. But almost invariably we’re told Ron Paul is in last place and far behind the leader Mitt Romney.
But none of these delegate counters properly estimate how the caucuses will allocate their delegates. According to the Paul campaign, Ron is well positioned to win 50% of the delegates in Iowa, 75% in Minnesota, 50% in Colorado, and 75% in Maine. So what is likely to be the true delegate count once the caucus states select their national delegates?
Add together the bound delegates from New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada, and extrapolate the caucus states’ delegates using the Paul campaign’s estimates and you get:
Total Delegates (IA, NH, SC, FL, NV, MN, CO, ME)
Romney: 93 (6, 7, 2, 50, 14, 2, 7, 5)
Paul: 82 (13, 3, 0, 0, 5, 28, 17, 16)
Gingrich: 29 (0, 0, 23, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0)
Santorum: 25 (6, 0, 0, 0, 3, 7, 9, 0)
Unpledged: 14 (3, 2, 0, 0, 0, 3, 3, 3)
*Unpledged includes Huntsman’s delegates in NH as well as unbound party leader delegates in certain states.
The caucus/convention process for selecting delegates has plenty of quirks along the way – the eventual delegates could be more evenly dispersed or could skew even more heavily to Paul as the majority candidate. But this is a far more accurate portrayal of the true state of play than allocating delegates proportionately to the straw poll or entirely to the straw poll leader.
And it shows that, for now, this is a two-man race in delegates between Paul and Romney.
This is really interesting. Apparently Chicago politics has moved to Maine. The recount is coming!
Update: even the Chicago Tribune is covering this! lol
Double update: a great article from TheNewAmerican.com on this subject.
It’s so easy to judge people who advocate the legalization of marijuana for medical purposes; but if we oppose doing so are we really saying that, “I don’t care if it works, I want you to suffer”?
Here we can see the same patient asking Mitt Romney and Dr. Ron Paul their thoughts on medical marijuana.
Hilarious. I have no idea how this is possible. Bad Lip Reading on youtube is run by some kind of genius savant.
*Also from my man Rob at TheSwash.com
Sorry Romney fans, the power of propaganda is an exact science, but thanks to Youtube it’s very difficult to escape the past.
Want to elect a white Obama with more money and a stronger track record in business? Vote Romney!
Thanks to my man Al Green for the soundtrack on this lovely little video.
A new IBOPE Zogby poll shows Atlanta businessman Herman Cain vaulting into the No. 1 front-runner position among active candidates as the choice to win the GOP presidential nomination in 2012.
Cain, a longtime Pillsbury executive who later became chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, was the preferred choice of 14 percent of the likely Republican primary voters polled.
His showing placed second only to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who got 17 percent. Christie, however, has insisted repeatedly that he will not be running for president in 2012. Ron Paul placed third with 10 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who had 9 percent.
Ron Paul, is “a 10 percenter,” solid and “very intense” support (who? me?!), that is limited. While it’s hard to see him winning the nomination, Zogby said, his supporters are very passionate about his candidacy.
My alter-ego works in software and finance and I know a little about the difference between money in the bank and a “commitment.”
Romney’s big raise is NOT in cash. It’s in sweet nothing’s called “commitments.”
If all the money ends up clearing and Romney ends up rolling in cash so be it, but he doesn’t have it yet and I will be surprised to hear that he gets it all—it’s just slightly less painful to tell someone you’ll give them thousands than it is to actually cut that sweaty check.